Central Java Governor Ganjar overtakes Prabowo in latest eligibility poll
JAKARTA (The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network): Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is expected to win a presidential race against six potential presidential candidates, including party leader Gerindra Prabowo Subianto and Jakarta Governor Anie Baswedan, according to a recent political survey.
The survey, conducted by political pollster Indikator Politik in mid-February, found that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician has become more popular ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Indikator surveyed some 1,200 randomly selected respondents from across the country aged 17 or older. The results have a margin of error of 2.9%.
Respondents were asked to choose a president from among 33 candidates, 19 candidates, seven candidates and three candidates. When the survey provided 33 popular names announced to run in the presidential election and asked respondents who they would vote for if the presidential election was held now, 21.9% chose Prabowo, while Ganjar and the governor from Jakarta, Anies Baswedan, trailed in second and third place. , with 19.8 and 16.4 percent, respectively.
The three political figures are still leading the survey with 19 names, including PDI-P politician and Minister of Social Affairs Tri “Risma” Rismaharini, former Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Susi Pudjiastuti and the current Vice President Ma’ruf Amin.
However, when all the names were filtered down to just seven candidates, including Prabowo, Ganjar, Anies, Democratic Party leader Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Public Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir, House Speaker and PDI-P politician Puan Maharani, along with Golkar party leader and Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, the survey found Ganjar ahead of Prabowo in terms of eligibility.
Indikator Politik Indonesia executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said a possible explanation for Ganjar’s rise in popularity, at Prabowo’s expense, was that respondents who preferred a candidate who was not on the seven-name list had decided to choose Ganjar.
“When you remove the other names, [voters’ support] was mostly focused on Ganjar, although there were also slight increases for Erick and Puan,” he said.
“But essentially all six candidates saw their eligibility increase except for Prabowo,” he continued, adding that Prabowo’s eligibility had dropped considerably since the support he had gained in the elections of 2019.
According to Burhanuddin, another factor in Prabowo’s declining popularity was that the former general shunned public attention during his tenure as defense minister.
The other candidates, by comparison, were either governors or had already begun setting up campaign billboards across the country. The survey also revealed that while only 65.3% of respondents knew Ganjar – placing him as the least known candidate among himself, Prabowo and Anies – 89.4% of respondents who know him said that they would support it. in Ganjar during the presidential elections.
By contrast, 98% of respondents know Prabowo, but only 76% would vote for him in a presidential election.
“So with Ganjar it’s more about his popularity than his eligibility,” Burhanuddin said.
The recent Indikator survey was consistent with other public opinion polls in placing Ganjar at the top of their eligibility ratings.
A survey by Kompas’ research and development division published in October last year, for example, placed Ganjar’s eligibility rating at number one, tied with Prabowo.
As Ganjar’s popularity grows, there is no guarantee that he will run for office, with some of his elite political party members, especially those supporting Puan, opposing his bid for the presidency.
A rivalry between Puan and Ganjar is believed to be simmering, sparking speculation of a growing rift within the party ahead of the election.
The PDI-P elite, for example, chose to leave Ganjar out of an internal consolidation meeting in May 2021 held in Semarang, Central Java, despite being located in the province in which Ganjar is governor. PDI-P matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri, Puan’s mother, has yet to name the party’s presidential candidate for the 2024 presidential race.
It is reported that Ganjar’s growing popularity has presented a dilemma for the country’s largest party.