A call for a ban on tourist travel to the holiday mecca of Bali has been issued by a prominent international meat analyst based in Australia following the growing risk of foot-and-mouth disease making its way to our shores.

Simon Quilty, Global AgriTrends, made the call at the Pasture Agronomy Service conference in Wagga Wagga in New South Wales this week, telling growers that foot-and-mouth disease had spread rapidly over the past month at the east, west and central Java, Lombok and all the islands of Indonesia.

Speaking to Farmonline afterwards, Mr Quilty said that given that more than a million Australians visit Bali in a normal year and pent-up travel demand means the current number is likely to be very high , a ban was an obvious step to protect the Australian beef industry.

“What we don’t want are FMD freeways through Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane airports,” he said.

“Foot and mouth disease is in Bali and can be carried on clothing.”

Mr Quilty said the official information given to growers in Australia was quite different from that coming from those on the ground in Indonesia.

Indonesian vets say there is now a 50:50 chance of foot and mouth disease reaching Australia and the risk of lumpy skin disease is even higher, although the second risk is over three to five years where FDM is an immediate threat given the rate of tourism, he reported.

Vaccines for both diseases are tight globally, crippling the Indonesian government‘s efforts to keep the disease at bay.

Indonesia was also caught between the need to eliminate the disease and global food shortages.

“There has been a reluctance to order mass culls for this reason. The approach has been to minimize animals getting sick,” Quilty said.

“It’s a complex situation having to ensure that there aren’t excessive livestock losses that will contribute to food shortages and it’s very difficult to strike the right balance.”

Unfortunately for Australia, however, this approach has increased the risk of foot and mouth disease making its way here.

“Until Indonesia fully vaccinates its herd, none of us can rest easy,” Quilty said.

Asked whether the global shortage of beef could mean Australia’s trading partners are more likely to lower their foot-and-mouth disease ban standards, Mr Quilty said it was unlikely.

“For years they have ensured that strict biosecurity rules are maintained and any changes would set a precedent that would last for years,” he said.

“However, given Australia’s strength in traceability and our history of strong biosecurity, the concept of regionalization could be put in place.

“So instead of a nationwide ban, supply to a region or even a county could be put in place.”

A case of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia would likely lead to an overnight correction in the cattle market and while the intention was not to panic the market, producers should certainly be made aware, Mr Quilty said.

“Every business is different, but know it’s on our doorstep and assess your risk profile,” he said.

Speaking at the PAS conference, Quilty urged producers across the country to “get their houses in order” around timely decisions to sell livestock.

He said Australia was in a unique position to supply the world with protein due to the countercyclical nature of a herd replenishment.

As other key supplier countries go into liquidation, Australia is rebuilding, providing beef and sheepmeat export opportunities over the next few years to feed the world.

“We just have to overcome this immediate threat on our doorstep from foot and mouth disease,” he said.

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